Securing a future | Prof Hugh Montgomery OBE
Summary
This medical professionals on-demand teaching session will provide a short but comprehensive overview of the urgency of actions needed to address the worst of climate change's impacts. Participants will examine various phenomena across the globe, such as record-breaking temperatures, devastating floods, and daunting predictions, that demonstrate the reality of the climate crisis. Through exploring how the emissions of greenhouse gases is leading to unprecedented extreme weather events and how the permanence of their impacts will affect generations to come, individuals will gain the knowledge and resources needed to take necessary action in their respective practices.
Learning objectives
- Explain the urgency of action needed to mitigate the effects of climate change on global health.
- Identify the causes of accelerated global temperature, Arctic CIC area decrease, land ice melting, and sea level rise.
- Analyze recent extreme weather events and their relation to climate change.
- Recognize positive feedback loops (e.g. forest fires leading to the liberation of CO2 into the atmosphere). 5.Summarize the long-term effects of greenhouse gas emissions on global temperature and climate change, within the context of successes and failures of international efforts thus far.
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right. Well, I've got 45 minutes. I will try to come in under time. Neck and I normally talk in the reverse order in that I set out the store list. Why? There's a problem and neck talks about solutions inside the NHS. But Neck had another meeting to go to. So you're getting in reverse order. I'm gonna take you through the urgency of action because my recognition largely is that most you get it, and that's why you're here today. But you may not be on top of the current science with how grave the situation is. I've been in this field for 24 years, and I have never, ever bean so scared as I was becoming the last four weeks. This was what humanity was burning in 2019, just pre Kobe it. Unless there was a near 5% drop emissions in the first year of Kobe. There was a very rapid acceleration thereafter in 2021 we're accelerating very aggressively now. Submissions are not going down. Whenever you hear of, there's more deployment renewables. There's never been before it set set. That's all true, but it's not displacing fossil fuel use, which is accelerating. That's an exponential rate, as we shall see shortly. And we've ignored the warnings we've known for over 100 years that the threats of the greenhouse gas emissions is there. We've had Kissinger 48 years ago with the American defence establishment warning off grave threats and impacts already being seen. But even if we look at the cop negotiations, the conference the party is 1995 27 years ago were saying we have to a peak on be reducing by 2020. That's two years ago. We meant to be on the way down. They send that 13 years ago, but by two years later, they realize that was far too late. Say we have to pick my 2015. We didn't We made no changes. A year or two later, we're saying within a few years and we took no notice. Look at the change in the message. In a swell 13 years ago, we had to peak to have a good chance of limiting temperature rise to blow two degrees C. Two years later, it was to avoid dangerous climate change, and eight years ago it was to do so if the world was to have any hope and we've missed all of those warnings and targets and done absolutely nothing. We were involved. Course with The Lancet commissions. This was our 1st 1 2000 and nine saying that climate change with the greatest threat to global health of the 21st century Um, we've got to grows under estimate. Actually, of what? We should have been far more strident about that. And we've had reports ever since with The Lancet countdowns, and no one's taken any notice of those either. This means that we're not just approaching a threat. We're not just looking at existentially problem for our grandchildren. We are dropping off the edge of the cliff right now, and the impact will be on you and may I'm 60 and I'm in terrible trouble from climate change. And I have a 16 year old son for whom life will be catastrophic unless we act really, really aggressively and incredibly quickly on. The reason is that we've added 48.8 billion Hiroshi um bombs worth of energy to our atmosphere since 1998. In fact, we've added, if you total the oceans We've added somewhere around 72 billion Hiroshima bombs worth of energy and we're adding five here. Oshima. Bombs of energy a second to our atmosphere That doesn't change the complex half life of carbon dioxide means that will still be 1/5 of the CT remitting today will still be trapping heat in 33,000 years time and 7% of the greenhouse gases Women today in the form of carbon dioxide will be cooking our planet in 100,000 years time. This is yours is having impact on global temperature. This from nature last year, the best of a pale a grip pay a logical record of temperature. We have showing this is Goldie locks temperature we had for around 12,000 years that allowed humanity to flourish worldwide. But just look at what we've achieved essentially in the last 50 years on the right and side, a rate of change that really unprecedented in geological history. And it's not just the temperatures that air going up. We losing Arctic C I. C. Area and from the American and Russian nuclear submarine data. We know the thickness of the ice is dropping much faster than those is a surface area. In other words, the volume is going down very, very much more dramatically. Even in the area is we're melting land, I says. Well, just the West breathe nice. Salt is using 1.1 million metric tons of freshwater a minute now, and that's adding to see level rise, which is also contributed to by thermal Asian expansion, and that is also accelerating. We've now reached around one centimeter every two years in global sea level. Rise. Now. Have you had energy to an atmosphere? You get weather If you don't have energy and atmosphere, there isn't any weather. A tall, the more energy you add, um or extreme, whether you'll get on the morgue, extreme weather events that will be. And these are the attributions of most recent extreme weather events worldwide. Statistically, what they're related to climate change. In your see, there are some blue ones where we're certain that statistically they would not due to climate change, and you'll see there's a gray ones where we're not sure, But the vast majority of these events can be very clearly attributed to climate change. Their the red marks on this map and we can take our way through. Then this was Australia in the Northern Hemisphere winter in 2019, just pre Kobe. Well, remember those fires and this is the first of the positive feedback legs will be talking about shortly. If you desiccate graze the temperature off the air, it can hold more moisture, which dries out desiccate land. And as it gets hotter and as you get a prolonged dry spells, the risk of fire goes up from lightning strike and so forth, and the burning of soil and vegetation releases a huge amount of coatue into the atmosphere. So just that fire in just one season in just the east of just one territory of just one constant in just one month of one year released around 2.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions of the entire year. And that would be frightening were the only fire. But it wasn't. This was Siberia in the same year, burning an area roughly the size of Belgium on the following year, burning through an area six times. That's a Belgium Putin, putting this on the map two weeks ago to say, wanted to try to help put this fire out, he won't be able to. It's far too big, and it's spreading through the soil. But it's not just there, either. This is California, with the summer fires getting worse and worse every year. The Amazon, where we've got increasing numbers of fires part need to ignited my balls narrow. Who wants to burn the forest down planting but also from lightening strikes. And as wave or five fronts progress. They produce substantial thermal rise in conviction that they're leading edge, charging smoke particles of leading to lightening strikes distant from the smoke so the fire can leap frog through the rainforest. But three times a many fires in the rainforests. Van Gogh from Congo, as in Brazil and the bottom left in Denise here is affected. And let's just remember Canada last summer where one town Roque, the Canadian temperature record, ever recorded one day, and it broke the record again the next day. And on the third day, the record was broken again. On on the fourth day, the town burned down grease a blaze in August, Turkey, a blazing August, Spain ablaze in August on the same across Europe, and it didn't stop there In December, Colorado was ablaze. This these huge thermal rises, creating huge wind blasts but also dumping snow. As you got this conviction effect, this was just before Christmas. Remember to last August. It's not just fires this with the belt on borders, flooding This was Germany. This was London three floods in August 1 of which took out three hospitals emergency departments that couldn't admit patients. That was the same month that China had thousands of people dying in floods. And it was only a few weeks before this was the picture from the New York subway. So these extreme weather events are getting more and more frequent and Maurine more severe, and they're not confined to just one territory. This was British Columbia in November, displacing 18,000 people with this very dangerous combination that we now understand this from a paper in nature last year, if you get a fire, you burn through the roots structure off the plants, weakening the soil, and if you then get a flood, you get landslides. And that's what happened in Colombia. We have this colossal destruction of infrastructure, partly through these landslide to soiled escape way, and increasingly, this is recognized This was from nature in September last year. These two double punch is is that called extreme weather flood Following heat our on our higher That risk is now. When they beat in last 2000 years, this was Malaysia 2021 71,000 displaced in December. Let's just remember it's happening this year. This is in the tile in April, but here in Spain in 2022 this was South America, with record temperatures in January of this year, Australia with temperature records of the Southern Hemisphere in January, too. Spain heat waves in March in May as well as the floods. And and we've course got this massive heat wave in Pakistan and India now which is destroying crops and these sorts of crop failures that we're seeing globally. Our synergize ng with those were signals of the results from the war in Ukraine destabilizing food supply systems locally and internationally. The point being that we talk in the wrong currency 1.1 degrees, which is what we've had so far of temperature rises, preindustrial times doesn't sound remotely scary. It's only when you start talking about 72 billion hero Sheba bombs worth of energy. You start understanding when you start looking at these impacts. So 1.1 degrees where we are now is hugely unsafe. And the idea probably eight in the press that scientists say that 1.5 degrees is a safe threshold. It was never, ever said 1.5 degree target was chosen because it was thought that might be a target we could hit. It was the only reason one our degrees was chosen. 1.1 degrees is catastrophic, and we'll continue to worsen. For the reasons I've explained earlier about the longevity of to 1.5 degrees will be an absolute catastrophe. The trouble is, we're currently on a target for 5.5 degrees in your lifetimes. We're also accelerating towards even that horrible, dangerous target. As we saw the metaphysical airing last week, we've now got a nearly 50% chance of dusting through 1.5 degrees in the next four years. And remember that if we don't stop now, we're in for even worse and long lasting catastrophe for the reasons I talked about. So unless we not start knotting, switching off, renounce gas emissions, but sucking them out of the atmosphere using magic pixie dust because we don't yet have the technology to do that was still, even if we do now committed to progressive climatic destruction for thousands of years. This coming from the IPC sees a are six working Group One report on the time scales. We have to remember it's not our grandchildren. It's not future generations. It's you. Species, extinction, widespread disease, unlivable heat, ecosystem collapse and cities minutes by rising seat will become painful. Your B s before a child's day turns 30. Well, they're already painfully obvious. We've got eight species and our becoming extinct. We've already got unlivable heat and ecosystem collapse. We've lost 72% of all vertebrates on the planet since 1970. So these things are already here and they're going to get a lot worse. All of these time lines seem to be converging on the next 30 to 50 years. We know that just a static temperature changes. 19% of the Earth's surface currently populated by humans, will be on inhabitable within 30 to 50 years, which would mean that three around three billion people will be dead or we forced to my great just. For that reason, of course, it would be a basket greater number because two thirds of a billion people will be under the high tide mark by then. That's knocking nearly four billion dead or migrating. And that isn't including the number who will move because of extreme weather events and crop failure, for instance, let alone the wars and conflicts that will come over resource. The PCC indeed echoed these sorts of numbers in their report in February 2022 saying, We've got approaching 3.6 billion people living in context, already highly vulnerable to climate change, And we've got other threats coming down the pipe, even if we were to get through those decades. This published only two weeks ago, two weeks last Friday in Nature, saying that with ocean acidification and carbon loading, we're looking for mass extinction event, the Permian sort of level. Remember that killed 96% of all animals on the planet within the century that would have been triggered, but it's far worse than even that because these models are built largely on linear changes. And if we look at most of these things. They're not linear. The greenhouse gas emissions are rising exponentially. They're not going up linearly. They look linear because we're extreme. Right and side of that curve were in the 2000 twenties, and things look straight only because they're going straight up near enough. Worse than that to none of these models. Kenbrell didn't positive feedback loops, and we now know that we've triggered six off them, the first of them all. The fires that are releasing increasing amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the more CO2 we released from the fires. The hotter it gets, the hotter it gets, the draw, the air, the longer the heat waves and the more fires there are. We've also lost surface Alveda, which is the active snow and ice reflecting heat back into space. And, as you melts, know a nice there's more dark soil in ocean and to absorb that heat. For that reason, we know that rate of Earth's energy came has doubled in only the last 14 years. That will lead to violence temperatures with further and more rapid melting of ice in a positive feedback loop, but also raising temperatures to drive more fires in another positive be back link. These don't act in isolation and they sent a jai's with three Mawr, which comes from the lease of me thing me thing being 83 times a powerful a greenhouse gas as his carbon dark side. It's coming from me thing sequestered and carbonate rocks which are a large sink. They're coming from melting meeting hydrates in the tundra. We've all seen those pictures of doubling under the ice in the Arctic and you could really little hole and set like to it. And they're coming from fermenting wetlands which are releasing huge amounts of me thing. All of these in tract synergistically, more me thing from common eight rocks means more me thing from tundra and more me thing from under the from fermenting and all of those things interact to drive each other and they interact to drive ice melt, increasing all beta which interacts to drive me thing melted fires which interacted drive all the other things. So this is a wicked farm or than exponential interaction. Six feedback lose the six being the release now from rainforests. We've talked down so much rain forest that there isn't enough left to absorb the 02, and so much of is on fine now that these rain for us, not just the Amazon, but all of the rain forests are now on Etsy. Oh, to admit ear's. And if you think that's bad, it's worse. Still, because the climate states don't just change in an exponential function, they change in a bind. Reflex state. One of those is a feature called a dance dot Oh stripper of them. So we know that the polls North and South Pole, he eats very much more quickly than the global average. In fact, the heating is 2 to 3 times quicker currently at the polls than it is elsewhere. And sometimes that conflict a very, very Southern. Rapid changes in temperature. And there's one mark there around 38,000 years ago, where you'll see that temperatures rose by around 10 degrees in a very brief time scale. Indeed. Now this paper, published two years ago, suggested that the right and side there we have triggered a deal event on that by tricking in the event from where we are, they're mapping suggested that we will have temperature rises upwards of 35 degrees Celsius at the polls. Now you might say, Well, that's worrying, but let's hope that it's not gonna happen. If it does, it will be a long way away. Well, the bad luck is that it looks, if the data already in this was March the 21st 2022 where we had these huge changes. Arctic temperatures were 40 degrees, 40 Celsius higher than normal. The North Pole at the same time was 33 0 Celsius above normal. And if that sounds worrying or march the 22nd, only a day later and toxic temperatures were 47 degrees Celsius above normal. And that's just now remember, this heating is continuing, so we can expect very much more dramatic changes in that. And you can think for yourself what this will do. The ice melt Indeed, if we just look at the sweets glacier that's now losing nearly 1.6 million liters of freshwater a second, adding 4% of global C level right. But we're now seeing fracturing in the terminal part of that place here, where there are pillars of ice that pitting the glaciers the continental shelves when those collapsed. That glacier will now be unrestrained in it. Slide into the ocean, sliding on a lubricant base off meltwater, producing really very sudden accelerated sea level rise and plates. Glacier is not the only one that will be affected in this way. On top of that, we have other binary state flips. This is the A, M, O. C. Or the Atlantic radial. Overturn circulation, which drives in from the right and side of that slide warm water from the Pacific and delivers it on the left hand side, up past Britain as the Gulf Stream. Which is why we have a summer or winter temperature that's manageable compared to if you go left to Newfoundland, which has icebergs and thick snow in the winter is the Gulf Stream that protects us from there. But we know now that collapse would be catastrophic but that we're now already at a point low side, too critical transition, partly due to a warning of Asians and partly due to melt off water frozen water up in the Arctic when most of the evidence suggests the MOC on the southern real overturn circulation. Ah, likely to have collapsed within the next 30 years. Remember, everything is focusing down now on the next 30 years or so. For all of these chickens to have come home to roost, the Jetstream similarly, is a nap. It's very river off water, essentially airborne, and it's oscillating, which is why we get something cold spells. And it's why we get sudden warm spells like 17 degrees Celsius just before New Year in Britain this year, when it flips, it's gonna change the distribution of water, and we know it's going to lock into a northern trajectory sometime in the next 30 to 35 years. When it does, it will deprive the whole of the Iberian peninsula of water. So there won't be any rain in Spain and Portugal rendering along with the temperatures, rendering those areas pretty much uninhabitable. Along with North Africa and southern Italy and southern France, those migrants will move north. They'll move north of into an area that is now being flooded because as those storm tracks change, northern Europe will see ever heavy a rainfall. And of course, if the MOC flips the same time, we'll be seeing that as tens of meters of snow in the winter and this isn't just climate scientist saying this. This is the military. This was 2003, when the American military were talking a planet change, causing a significant drop in the human carrying capacity of the Earth's environment. It's economists. This was the world Economic forums risks register from this year looking at the record major risk of the next decade when they asked economists in business people, and you'll see that the major risks over the next 10 years start number one with climate action failure as well. It's extreme weather and biodiversity lost, and it's worse even in that the next two. So we are absolutely, now down to the wire, and it's down to us because politicians are not going to address this problem. For us, this is the healing data or the morning lower data from Hawaii about Mr X E 02 concentrations. And here are some of the major negotiations and so forth that have gone on over that time here, off the last 26 copy negotiations. And I don't think you could probably detect any impact at all of any of those 26 meetings on global greenhouse gas concentrations. Indeed, the rate of rise is going up every Morstein plea. Let's look at what they agreed. Now you might have got the message that the agreement probably was not too much, given the Alex Sharma who shared it was in tears at the end of it. What they agreed to was that they agreed to recognize the importance of the best science. They agreed to welcome the scientific contribution from working Group One. They agreed to invite the IPC to present more reports. They agreed to express alarm human activities, driving rises in temperature, and they agreed to stress the urgency of enhancing ambition. Well, thanks very much for that. That's not going to achieve anything at all. Even if all of the aspirations put on the table were enacted and bear in mind, none of them ever have seen before. Even if all of them were, we could have a rise in greenhouse gas emissions of nearly 14% by 2030. But we know in fact, they're not going to be enacted. So you might remember that there was a commitment to stop all deforestation by 2030. That's quite interesting because ball scenario changed. It's likely to say he would end illegal deforestation, so he's largely legalized it and actually buy 2030 doesn't give a timeline, much as Nick was talking about. When you see a target with time, you know there's cheating going on. And the rate of Amazonian deforestation in Brazil has increased 400% since the cop negotiations in November of last year. There's balls narrow sets out to chop down the rainforest by 2030 even if they did everything they could. And all of the technology that's available when active was still gonna bust through 2.4 degrees. And I remind you that where we are now, it's already catastrophically impactful and dangerous. This just reminds us of the deforestation issue. Now if we were to have tried to stay below 1.5, which actually we can't, uh, we would have to cut greenhouse gas emissions you on me, in everything we do at home and in our work lives by nearly 50% by 2030 the I P c c a r. Six working Group three coming out with this statement. If we haven't done it by then and you further delay will missed a brief and rapidly closing window to secure a livable future. And we've talked about the fact we've got no chance really would get a bus to 1.5 degrees very soon. So this is a call to arms on. Did my last couple of minutes and we'll be back on time. I think for some questions, this is all about purchasing politics and power. And it's about us. Well, you seem to live in a world where everyone thinks someone else's responsible and there will disempowered whatever we do doesn't matter. You know what I do makes no difference if my boss is flying every week to a conference. What Britain does makes no difference in India. If India and China are doing something, If I buy this, this soup market will be doing something different. If we don't act as individuals, there is no hope. If we do act, others will follow. Let me just take you through again. Some of you will be familiar with this. The scopes is there. Call off emissions for us to address on. This is in the hospital you work in, or health system urine or a home schooled. One is the fuel. You burn directly to release emissions, so if you were at home, that will be the gas you burn in your gas boiler. Or it's the cold. You burn in your cold fire scope to of the emissions from purchase power, heating, cooling. So this is essentially who your electricity supplier is. Step three is everything you are responsible for emissions from what you buy in for your services. Well, what you procure to take place. So this is a procurement issue, what you're buying to sell or whatever rather what you're selling or what you're buying to manufacture what you sell or to run your business. I'm gonna echo next. Comment's here about NET. Net doesn't exist. The problem net is it's full of holes. So let's just talk through shell. They say they're going to reduce emissions. That going to have there could be net carbon zero, but it's only a target, and they're only talking about scopes. One emissions and scope, too. Now they don't actually burn much of their own fuel, and they don't buy much of their electricity for their offices. So scope one and two is really not very much at all. In fact, if you look at even what a true zero would be, it wouldn't be very much. But they're not even a minute for true Zero because it turns out that that for them they're zero means 2000 and 16 is emissions. So whenever you hear Net zero, think, What's the baseline? What's What's the zero they're talking about in shells Case it isn't zero a tall work out what the trajectory is on workout, whether it relates to scope, ones don't to or everything as it should scope 12 and three. So, in fact, what shall have committed to his natural reduction of 2.5% in their emissions and they're able to sell? This is net zero, and they're not the only ones who are engaged. Miss a lot of practice. HSBC. You have heard one of their directors making a sort of a lecture that he thought was relatively private, talking about the fact that he doesn't care if Florida is 6 m underwater. They're just going on as usual on HSBC, have a target to be quote net zero by 2050. Of all things, I have none of your bank with them. This is just lunacy. So finally, the actions for me, it's sevens and the advertising industry tell us that every one of us can radically change the behavior of seven people. There are seven people, at least who love us so much respect to so much that they'll do pretty much anything we tell them. So your first job is to get seven people who aren't acting toe act with you and get each of them to do the same things to do at home or at work or not to drive scope to instantly. There is no excuse in Great Britain for not being 100% renewable in the electricity source. And if you're trust, you can go and ask. Your trust is not doing that. Then they should be. We're gonna work to deliver that for you, but you need to start applying pressure. You need to change the landlords electricity supply, your own one if you own a flat or rent one, and you need to do it everywhere on. But where a lot of these quotes 00 to admission, electricity supplies or not, and to my mind, to very good ones, a good energy, which is excellent and octopus energy. And if you're not with either of them travel, of course. Don't that's one delivering to you online. And if you do try to go on foot or on a bike, a use mass transport The food issue is really important. Me thing, as I say, is 83 times a powerful a greenhouse gas, as is carbon dioxide in its 1st 20 years. And if we use local, seasonable, vegetable based products of to footprint from AARP miles and ship miles for the transport of the food after it's refrigeration is gone and we don't have cows, another ruminants belching me thing move your money on. There are a few that's try, oh, dose as a bank, the cooperative bank that just to because pretty much all of the others invest very heavily and fossil fuels on there. Just lying with Green Wash when they say that they're interested in climate change. As the cat has come out in the bank for ages, B. C. Buying Well, first thing is, don't anything you buy has got a carbon footprint, said you can avoid buying. Just don't buy stuff do you make sure that you choose from whom you're buying and make sure that they're green credentials are as good as they can be. Voting is interesting, were not yet in election cycle. But if you start writing two MPs, it turns out that 22 letters to an M P means that they have to report that to their chief whip. And letters are written letters, not e mails, because it takes more efforts to write a letter. And it's easy for people to get spans with email. So in your constituency, get a bunch of people to write and say, What's your position on climate change? What are you going to do on? I won't be voting for you unless you're taking it seriously. And that message has a chance to shape policy and finally, at work. Your trust if you're in a hospital, for instance, is already in trouble. It's trying to get its way through cove it it's trying to get catch up on the backlog that's there. It's trying to meet C diff targets. It's trying to meet cancer waiting times. They're paralyzed there in trouble. There aren't many off thumb, so his neck was saying Get together, work out with solutions are I go to trust and say We are going to make you do this but we'd like to help you and for instance, one of nexus use about cycling. Go to and say, Would you like us to be the cycling champion for transport? Would you like us to stop where the bike shed could go? Bring solutions, not problems, And it has to go course way beyond cycling. Why are we in hospitals still serving food that's being shipped from often a very, very long way away? Often that's very unhealthy, and that's also very high carbon. We shouldn't be doing that. So they were out. So I'm gonna stop. I can't sweetness with catastrophes now unavoidable on what we can do is try to mitigate it. And then we have to, I say, for our Children, that's because I'm 60 but you are a lot less than that. So we're not talking about your Children were talking about you on. This depends entirely on what we do in terms of moving the economy, but we've all got to act together, and if we do, this is the opportunity the first ever in history of humanity where one generation Consejo, the ecosystem and our species, which is quite a non er and we should all step up to it and be the heroes ast David Bowie would say So I will stop and take questions if you wish. Thank you. Use such a compelling an important talk. Now, we don't have any questions yet on the online chat, but do you feel free to send the men? But if I can take some questions from the audience that we have here, please feel free to raise your hand. Yes, in the red. Uh um, I just had a question for you personally. When you see things in the media on from politicians that are just so untrue and so out of line with the truth that we know, how do you deal with that? And how do you still use that, too? Drive you forward in your action, not let you get it let down because it's quite frustrating. You're not wrong. So I used to get angry and very frustrated. And now I told you your it because they're irrelevant. They haven't done anything and they're not going to the days when we had politicians. You lead a long gone. Politicians follow, so we need to just act. It's down to us. We can do this. We can change our spending. We can change everything we do. Your generation could do this on their own. And very mind you already have your generation. The reason the Conservative Party ganged because they knew they were on electable unless they started moving on this. And that was a change that around eight years ago. So you've already changed that escape in your behaviors and your generation. If we do these things, we can change the world, and the government's will move in that permissive environment we've created for them. But I don't take any notice of them anymore. It's, um, they're in a relevance under this. Another hand raised to find you. Hi there, in terms of, you know, actually say we're already a kind of catastrophic place, and it's only going to get worse. I don't Resource is you'd recommend in terms of, you know, where we could look at individuals to adapt for the future. You know, considering you know, some of us have families and things and thinking of futures for them. Yeah, what can we do? It's a good question and it's a personal view on others will defer. I don't think we can adapt out of this at all, and I think it's futile. If you just look at the temperatures were likely to expect in Britain, would have to relay all the roads in the entire ailment work just to deal with that, let alone the food supplies, let alone the migration. And everything else is coming down the line. I don't think it's possible to adapt. I think every effort has to now be focused entirely or mitigation. We just have to reduce emissions and switch them off. And what's the talk I've given you is deeply pessimistic, and it is cause this is a catastrophe and we can't, You know, we can't sweeten the pill In my lifetime. We have seen very, very sudden dramatic societal changes in behavior, and I remember the first of those was when I was probably a teenager, 16 17, just about start driving and drink Driving was absolutely the norm in the Western world, and certainly in Britain it was particularly what blokes did. It was a manly thing, Chuck. Six points down. You get behind the wheel. Um, there was advertising about it. That was messaging every Christmas. Nothing changed. And then suddenly one year it did. And the advertising industry still don't quite understand what happened, but it switched. It was a binary switch. One year everyone was drink driving. The next year they weren't. And that's just about obviously some critical mass and tipping point. So if we will drop our shoulders to this, it didn't want to the seven people we can influence and so forth. I really do feel it the moment for the first time in my life that the soil is for tar. For this, I think we can create dramatic and sudden change between us. But I wouldn't focus on Adaptation because I don't because I hope in hell if we don't stop it. That we can adapt are way out of this time. Just just one more question. Which they do that thank you to questions. One was, Can I have permission to use your slides to show other colleagues because I think they're incredibly powerful on Do save me the trouble of putting them together myself and Secondly, one of the things I find distressing on D interesting about the climate. The climate question is that we seem to have gone from a position where most people didn't think it was serious enough to a position where most people think it can't be tackled almost overnight. Um, obviously, your your talk is very distressing to listen to, um, is there any advice you can give Teo? Prevent those watching it from thinking Well, you know, it's too late. There's no there's no point. Well, I mean, I think there's a philosophical one here, isn't there? Which is that if you decide that there is no way out that and that you're going to die, then it makes it a certainty. If the boat goes down and you go, well, I've got no hope. Then you have no You're going to go down If you say well, hell, I'm going to swim like crazy and see if I can find some drift word. And there may be a life raft out there, and maybe I could, you know, if you start going for it, then you are in with a chance. So the only logical approach is to act. I think you're right. Way spent years telling everyone or being told you can't tell people bad things because it stairs them that makes them run away. Um, trouble is, there wasn't a good news message to sell in in the alternative, Really? So no one really got the message. It was catastrophic. And now everyone's getting it because they're seeing they're seeing the fires and the floods and the famines and so forth. I think the only positive I can get is that we have the technology. So the Lancet Commission report the first countdown report we published in 2014 with economists that engineers and say falls. We said, Is there the technology out here to fix the problem? And the arms was Yet we can fix this pretty much overnight. It's relatively low. Cost about $3 trillion a year. Baron I that $19.8 trillion were spent on Kobe in one year alone. So the technology is there, and there's plenty of money to do this. It's only a question of collecting the will to do it with the cash, and that's where we've all got impact on influence. We can all do this. Um, you know, you only have to change medicines, football in a supermarket rather and 12% and you could make them go bust because they just don't hold financial reserves. We've all got a lot more power than we think we've got. If we will act together, that's just the key message. Step Everyone follows those things we've talked about just the first. If you did nothing else, except get everybody you know to switch to 100% Newble an interesting supplier, and get all of your trust to do the same thing. That would be a massive, massive change, not just two emissions directly, but to the flow of cash in pension funds, an investment of funds and the movement in hedge funds, for instance. These things would have huge domino effect. And of course, you are all globally connected. Your generation more than any other, you probably have makes that you can talk to by any part of social media that in any part of the world, so you can all jump together and make the earth move. Thank you so much. You that so we've got time for for this Q and a section. But if you will join me again and giving another round of applause, he Montgomery